Risk & reward · Lesson 19
My algo won 2 of every 3 trades and still lost 5 in a row
The streak · Sept 16–17
- Win rate
- about 2 of every 3
- Losses in a row
- 5 · by close order
- The five lost
- ~$440 before fees
- 60% win rate · 100 trades
- 5-loss streak 46% of the time
- Same streak at my win rate · ~70 trades
- about 1 in 6
"Would you have called 5 in a row normal?"
▶ Watch the ShortWhat it taught me
My algo has won about 2 of every 3 trades and still had a losing streak of 5 in a row on September 16th and 17th, counting by the order they closed. The five lost about $440 before fees; a bug doubled one of them, fixed the same day.
I calculated how often a 60% win rate hits 5 losses in a row over 100 trades (46% of the time) and how often my own win rate would over about 70 trades (about 1 in 6), treating every trade as its own coin flip.
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