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Risk & reward · Lesson 19

My algo won 2 of every 3 trades and still lost 5 in a row

The streak · Sept 16–17

Win rate
about 2 of every 3
Losses in a row
5 · by close order
The five lost
~$440 before fees
60% win rate · 100 trades
5-loss streak 46% of the time
Same streak at my win rate · ~70 trades
about 1 in 6

"Would you have called 5 in a row normal?"

Watch the Short: My algo won 2 of every 3 trades and still lost 5 in a row▶ Watch the Short

What it taught me

My algo has won about 2 of every 3 trades and still had a losing streak of 5 in a row on September 16th and 17th, counting by the order they closed. The five lost about $440 before fees; a bug doubled one of them, fixed the same day.

I calculated how often a 60% win rate hits 5 losses in a row over 100 trades (46% of the time) and how often my own win rate would over about 70 trades (about 1 in 6), treating every trade as its own coin flip.

Next lesson · Rules that backfiredA breakeven stop would have thrown out 40 to 70% of my winners →

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EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY — nothing on this site is financial advice. I share what I do and how I trade. All trades you take are at your own risk.