Market history · 02
28% of players went bust betting on a coin that landed heads 60% of the time
The coin experiment · 61 people · $25 each
- Went bust
- 28%
- Typical 20% bettor · 100 flips (sim)
- ~$190
- Typical 40% bettor · 100 flips (sim)
- under $25
- My 14 trades at 5× size (replay)
- ~$1,100–1,400 vs ~$280
"Researchers gave 61 people $25 and a coin they were told landed heads 60% of the time, and 28% went bust."
▶ Watch the ShortWhat it taught me
Researchers gave 61 people $25 and a coin they were told landed heads 60% of the time, and 28% went bust. In a simulation of 100 flips, the typical 20% bettor finished near $190 and the typical 40% bettor finished back under $25.
I also replayed 14 of my live trades at 5 times my normal position size. After the order book’s limits, the number was more like $1,100 to $1,400, against about $280 at my normal size.
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