Fees & costs · Lesson 01
I have to win 2 of every 3 trades just to break even
The receipt · 35 fills
- Gross
- +$58
- Costs
- −$122
- Net
- −$64
"I made 58 gross and the fees took all of it and then some. The problem was never the win rate."
▶ Watch the ShortTry it: what win rate do you need?
If your average winner is smaller than your average loser, you have to be right more often than you're wrong. Fees make it worse: they shave every winner and deepen every loser. Move the sliders.
Break-even win rate
Starting values are roughly mine: about $100 risked, winners a little over half that, and fees ≈ $122 ÷ 35 fills × 2 fills per trade. This is arithmetic, not advice.
What it taught me
Across everything I’ve run live, my average winner is smaller than my average loser, so the math only works if I’m right about two thirds of the time. Over those 35 fills I was down $64, and $122 of that was pure cost.
A high win rate doesn’t mean you’re profitable. Run the costs first.
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